Remaining Schedules of BCS Teams 11-25

We now update our popular look at the remaining schedules for teams ranked #11-25 in the BCS Standings.  We also include teams that are likely to finish in the Top 25:

#12 Oklahoma:
at Iowa State
vs. Baylor
at West Virginia
vs. Oklahoma State
at TCU


Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  91.25
Sagarin predicted final record:  10-1



#11 Oregon State:
vs. Arizona State
at Stanford
vs. California
vs. Oregon
vs. Nicholls State


Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  85.63
Sagarin predicted final record:  10-2

#16 South Carolina:
vs. Tennessee
at Arkansas
vs. Wofford
at Clemson

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  83.72
Sagarin predicted final record:  10-2




#14 Stanford:



vs. Washington State
at Colorado
vs. Oregon State
at Oregon
at UCLA

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds: 83.70
Sagarin predicted final record:  9-3

#20 Nebraska:

at Michigan State

vs. Penn State

vs. Minnesota

at Iowa

vs. Ohio State in Big Ten Championship

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  82.84
Sagarin predicted final record:  10-3

#15 Louisville:
vs. Cincinnati
vs. Temple
at Syracuse
vs. Connecticut
at Rutgers

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  79.80
Sagarin predicted final record:  11-1




#10 Georgia:
vs. Florida
vs. Mississippi
at Auburn
vs. Georgia Southern
vs. Georgia Tech
vs. Alabama in SEC Championship

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  79.86
Sagarin predicted final record:  11-2



#18 Texas Tech:
at Kansas State
vs. Texas
vs. Kansas
at Oklahoma State
at Baylor

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  79.77
Sagarin predicted final record:  9-3



Cincinnati:
at Louisville
vs. Syracuse
at Temple
vs. Rutgers
vs. South Florida
at Connecticut

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  78.98
Sagarin predicted final record:  10-2

#19 Boise State:

at Wyoming
vs. San Diego State
at Hawai'i
vs. Colorado State
at Nevada

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  78.54
Sagarin predicted final record:  11-1



#13 Clemson:
at Wake Forest
at Duke
vs. Maryland
vs. North Carolina State
vs. South Carolina

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds: 78.36
Sagarin predicted final record:  10-2



#16 Texas A&M:

at Auburn
at Mississippi State
at Alabama
vs. Sam Houston State
vs. Missouri

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  77.45
Sagarin predicted final record:  9-3


#14 Florida State:
vs. Duke
at Virginia Tech
at Maryland
vs. Florida
vs. North Carolina in ACC Championship

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  76.90
Sagarin predicted final record:  11-2




#25 Louisiana Tech

vs. Texas-San Antonio

at Texas State
Utah State
at San Jose State


Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds: 75.22
Sagarin predicted final record:  10-1




#15 Mississippi State:

at Alabama
vs. Texas A&M
at LSU
vs. Arkansas
at Mississippi

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  74.90
Sagarin predicted final record:  9-3





Northern Illinois:
at Western Michigan
vs. Massachusetts
vs. Toledo
at Eastern Michigan
vs. Kent State in MAC Championship

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  74.87
Sagarin predicted final record:  12-1

#24 Oklahoma State

at Kansas State

vs. West Virginia

vs. Texas Tech

at Oklahoma

at Baylor

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  73.93
Sagarin predicted final record:  8-4

Michigan:

at Minnesota
vs. Northwestern
vs. Iowa
at Ohio State
vs. Ohio State in Big Ten Championship

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  73.64
Sagarin predicted final record:  9-3

#23 Texas:
at Kansas
at Texas Tech
vs. Iowa State
vs. TCU
at Kansas State

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  72.11
Sagarin predicted final record:  8-4



#17 USC:
vs. Oregon
vs. Arizona State
at UCLA
vs. Notre Dame
vs. Oregon in Pac-12 Championship


Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds: 71.01
Sagarin predicted final record:  8-5

#22 Arizona:

at UCLA

vs. Colorado

at Utah

vs. Arizona State

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  68.90
Sagarin predicted final record:  7-5

Rutgers:

vs. Kent State
vs. Army
at Cincinnati
at Pittsburgh
vs. Louisville

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  67.34
Sagarin predicted final record:  9-3



#21 West Virginia:
vs. TCU
at Oklahoma State
vs. Oklahoma
at Iowa State
vs. Kansas

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  59.23
Sagarin predicted final record:  6-6


TCU:
at Oklahoma State
vs. West Virginia
vs. Kansas State
at Texas
vs. Oklahoma

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  57.62
Sagarin predicted final record:  6-6

Boise State 19th in BCS

Harris Poll voters dropped USC and Mississippi State right in front of Boise State yesterday, making the Broncos #19 in the BCS Standings.  In Mississippi State's case, voters dropped them only 12-15 after their blowout loss to Alabama.

Most BCS watchers, myself included, predicted Boise State would jump to #17 after their convincing 45-14 win over Wyoming.  And the nation's coaches who vote in the USA Today poll moved Boise State up to 14th.  But the computers were unkind again, as Boise State barely made the Top 25 in the Computer Composite.  Sagarin was harsh, as his ratings have dropped Boise State from 19 to 29 to 32 in the last two weeks despite Boise State wins.  

The comparison with Mississippi State is most peculiar in Sagarin's ratings.  Both Boise State and Mississippi State are 7-1 this season, and, according to Sagarin's own formula, Boise State's schedule strength is rated by Sagarin as the 78th toughest while Mississippi State is #98.  The Bulldogs are 0-1 against Top 10 teams and 0-1 against Top 30 teams, while Boise State is 1-0 against Top 30 teams.  Yet Mississippi State comes out as Sagarin's #22 team while Boise State is #32.

Former Boise State Broncos in the NFL--Week Eight

Here are the results for former Boise State players in the NFL.  This will be updated as results come in.

Richie Brockel--Carolina Panthers (no statistics in Carolina loss)
Ryan Clady--Denver Broncos (starting lineman who helped Denver to win)
Daryn Colledge--Arizona Cardinals (helped Arizona to win)
Tyrone Crawford--Dallas Cowboys (1 tackle in Dallas loss)
Tommy Gallarda--Atlanta Falcons (1 tackle in Atlanta win)
George Iloka--Cincinnati Bengals (bye week)
Jeron Johnson--Seattle Seahawks (no statistics in Seattle loss)
Doug Martin--Tampa Bay Buccaneers (carried 29 times for 135 yards and a touchdown and caught three passes for 79 yards, including another 64-yard score, leading Tampa Bay to a 36-17 win over Minnesota) 

Shea McClellin--Chicago Bears (1 tackle in Chicago win)
Quintin Mikell--St. Louis Rams (3 tackles in St. Louis loss)
Kellen Moore--Detroit Lions (no statistics in Detroit win)
Austin Pettis--St. Louis Rams (3 catches for 15 yards in Ram loss)
Nate Potter--Arizona Cardinals (Potter's Cardinals won.)
Orlando Scandrick--Dallas Cowboys (no statistics in Dallas loss)
Kyle Wilson--New York Jets (1 tackle in Jet loss)
Billy Winn--Cleveland Browns (1 tackle and a sack in Cleveland win)
Titus Young--Detroit Lions (9 catches for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns in Detroit win)

Boise State #17 in Harris

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings/harris

Boise State #17 in Final Morning BCS Projection

The Harris Poll has been mirroring the Coaches Poll this year, rather than the AP Poll, as it has in years past.  I have taken a look at the Harris Poll from last week and made some slight adjustments to the Early Morning Projections.  I now have Boise State at #17.

1.    Alabama 100.00% + 100.00% + 93.00 =293.00
2.    Kansas State 92.61% + 92.13% + 96.00 = 280.74
3.    Notre Dame 88.61% + 89.60% + 95.00 = 273.21
4.    Oregon 94.31% + 94.13% + 82.00 = 270.44
5.    LSU 83.05% + 81.07% + 82.00 = 246.12
6.    Georgia 77.90% + 76.33% + 73.00 = 227.23
7.    Florida 69.42% + 71.67% + 80.00 = 221.09
8.    South Carolina 56.81% + 54.87% + 68.00 = 179.68
9.    Florida State 76.00% + 69.73% + 25.00 = 170.73
10.  Oregon State 46.37% + 50.80% + 63.00 = 160.17
11.  Louisville 60.20% + 54.47% + 42.00 = 156.67
12.  Oklahoma 51.39% + 50.53% + 50.00 = 151.92
13.  Stanford 42.44% + 41.80% + 62.00 = 146.24
14.  Clemson 66.17% + 60.93% + 15.00 = 142.10
15.  Texas A&M 40.14% + 38.67% + 40.00 = 118.81
16.  Texas Tech 19.25% + 25.87% + 52.00 = 97.12
17.  Boise State 42.98% + 40.07% + 8.00 = 91.05
18.  Mississippi State 38.58% + 37.27% + 14.00 = 89.85
19.  USC 39.53% + 27.87% + 7.00 = 74.40
20.  West Virginia 22.10% + 8.40% + 41.00 = 71.50
21.  Nebraska 19.19% + 16.60% + 28.00 = 63.79
22.  Arizona .95% + 7.07% + 44.00 = 52.02
23.  Texas 13.55% + 3.67% + 33.00 = 50.22
24.  Louisiana Tech 12.95% + 13.93% + 0.00 = 26.88
25.  Oklahoma State 11.25% + 4.80% + 4.00 = 20.25


26.  Toledo 4.00% + 5.87% + 10.00 = 19.87
27.  Rutgers 10.24% + 4.93% + 2.00 = 17.17
28.  Washington .61% + .53% + 10.00 = 11.14
29.  UCLA 4.14% + 6.87% + 0.00 = 11.01
30.  Northwestern 5.22% + .47% + 0.00 = 5.69
31.  Kent State 1.76% + 2.20% + 0.00 = 3.96
32.  Northern Illinois 2.64% + .80% + 0.00 = 3.44
33.  Michigan .75% + .14% + 2.00 = 2.89
34.  Tulsa 1.29% + 1.13% + 0.00 = 2.42
35.  Wisconsin 1.02% + .27% + 0.00 = 1.29

AP Percentages

1.    Alabama 100.00%
2.    Oregon 94.13%
3.    Kansas State 92.13%
4.    Notre Dame 89.60%
5.    LSU 81.07%
6.    Ohio State 77.20%
7.    Georgia 76.33%
8.    Florida 71.67%
9.    Florida State 69.73%
10.  Clemson 60.93%
11.  South Carolina 54.87%
12.  Louisville 54.47%
13.  Oregon State 50.80%
14.  Oklahoma 50.53%
15.  Stanford 41.80%
16.  Texas A&M 38.67%
17.  Mississippi State 37.27%
18.  USC 27.87%
19.  Boise State 27.07%
20.  Texas Tech 25.87%
21.  Nebraska 16.60%
22.  Louisiana Tech 13.93%
23.  West Virginia 8.40%
24.  Arizona 7.07%
25.  UCLA 6.87%

26.  Toledo 5.87%
27.  Rutgers 4.93%
28.  Oklahoma State 4.80%
29.  Texas 3.67%
30.  Kent State 2.20%
31.  Tulsa 1.13%
32.  Northern Illinois .80%
33.  Washington .53%
34.  Northwestern .47%
35.  Wisconsin .27%

Coaches Poll Percentages

1.    Alabama 100.00%
2.    Oregon 94.31%
3.    Kansas State 92.61%
4.    Notre Dame 88.61%
5.    LSU 83.05%
6.    Georgia 77.90%
7.    Florida State 76.00%
8.    Florida 69.42%
9.    Clemson 66.17%
10.  Louisville 60.20%
11.  South Carolina 56.81%
12.  Oklahoma 51.39%
13.  Oregon State 46.37%
14.  Boise State 42.98%
15.  Stanford 42.44%
16.  Texas A&M 40.14%
17.  USC 39.53%
18.  Mississippi State 38.58%
19.  West Virginia 22.10%
20.  Texas Tech 19.25%
21.  Nebraska 19.19%
22.  Texas 13.55%
23.  Louisiana Tech 12.95%
24.  Oklahoma State 11.25%
25.  Rutgers 10.24%

26.  Northwestern 5.22%
27.  UCLA 4.14%
28.  Toledo 4.00%
29.  Northern Illinois 2.64%
30.  Kent State 1.76%
31.  Tulsa 1.29%
32.  Wisconsin 1.02%
33.  Arizona .95%
34.  Michigan .75%

Washington .61%

Boise State #14 in Coaches Poll

http://m.usatoday.com/sports/collfootball/ncaafusatpoll

Boise State #18 in Early Projected BCS Standings

1.    Alabama
2.    Kansas State
3.    Notre Dame
4.    Oregon
5.    Georgia
6.    Florida
7.    LSU
8.    South Carolina
9.    Florida State
10.  Oregon State
11.  Louisville
12.  Stanford
13.  Oklahoma
14.  Clemson
15.  Texas A&M
16.  Texas Tech
17.  West Virginia
18.  Boise State
19.  Mississippi State
20.  USC
21.  Nebraska
23.  Texas
24.  Louisiana Tech
25.  Rutgers

Boise State #25 in Projected Computer Composite:

1.    Kansas State (25 + 23 + 23 + 25 + 24 + 24) = 96.0
2.    Notre Dame (24 + 25 + 24 + 24 + 24 + 25) = 95.0
3.    Alabama (19 + 24 + 25 + 23 + 23 + 23) = 93.0
4.    LSU (22 + 17 + 21 + 19 + 21 + 21) = 82.0
4.    Oregon (18 + 20 + 22 + 21 + 19 + 22) = 82.0
6.    Ohio State (15 + 22 + 17 + 22 + 22 + 20) = 81.0
7.    Florida (23 + 21 + 19 + 20 + 20 + 19) = 80.0
8.    Georgia (20 + 18 + 20 + 18 + 17 + 13) = 73.0
9.    South Carolina (17 + 15 + 18 + 16 + 18 + 17) = 68.0
10.  Oregon State (14 + 19 + 12 + 15 + 16 + 18) = 63.0
11.  Stanford (13 + 16 + 16 + 17 + 14 + 16) = 62.0
12.  Texas Tech (16 + 13 + 14 + 11 + 6 + 14) = 52.0
13.  Oklahoma (21 + 6 + 15 + 14 + 11 + 10) = 50.0
14.  Arizona (11 + 11 + 13 + 10 + 7 + 12) = 44.0
15.  Louisville (1 + 15 + 6 + 13 + 15 + 8) = 42.0
16.  West Virginia (12 + 2 + 11 + 9 + 10 + 11) = 41.0
17.  Texas A&M (10 + 9 + 2 + 8 + 13 + 15) = 40.0
18.  Texas (9 + 1 + 7 + 12 + 8 + 9) = 33.0
19.  Nebraska (6 + 10 + 0 + 6 + 9 + 7) = 28.0
20.  Florida State (0 + 14 + 3 + 7 + 12 + 3) = 25.0
21.  Clemson (0 + 8 + 8 + 4 + 3 + 0) = 15.0
22.  Mississippi State (4 + 12 + 0 + 5 + 5 + 0) = 14.0
23.  Washington (8 + 0 + 4 + 0 + 0 + 6) = 10.0
23.  Toledo (0 + 7 + 0 + 2 + 4 + 4) = 10.0
25.  Boise State (0 + 5 + 13 + 3 + 0 + 0) = 8.0


26.  USC (7 + 0 + 7 + 0 + 0 + 0) = 7.0
27.  Iowa State (5 + 0 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 5) = 6.0
28.  Oklahoma State (3 + 0 + 5 + 0 + 0 + 1) = 4.0
29.  Rutgers (0 + 3 + 0 + 0 + 2 + 0) = 2.0
29.  Michigan (2 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 2) = 2.0

Northwestern (0 + 4 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0) = 0.0
Ohio (0 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 1 + 0) = 0.0
UCLA (0 + 0 + 0 + 1 + 0 + 0) = 0.0

Projected Anderson & Hester Ratings

1.    Kansas State
2.    Notre Dame
3.    Alabama
4.    Ohio State
5.    Oregon
6.    Florida
7.    LSU
8.    Georgia
9.    Stanford
10.  South Carolina
11.  Oregon State
12.  Oklahoma
13.  Louisville
14.  Texas
15.  Texas Tech
16.  Arizona
17.  West Virginia
18.  Texas A&M
19.  Florida State
20.  Nebraska
21.  Mississippi State
22.  Clemson
23.  Boise State
24.  Toledo
25.  UCLA

Projected Massey Ratings

1.    Notre Dame
2.    Kansas State
3.    Alabama
4.    Oregon
5.    LSU
6.    Ohio State
7.    Florida
8.    Oregon State
9.    South Carolina
10.  Stanford
11.  Texas A&M
12.  Texas Tech
13.  Georgia
14.  Arizona
15.  West Virginia
16.  Oklahoma
17.  Texas
18.  Louisville
19.  Nebraska
20.  Washington
21.  Iowa State
23.  Toledo
24.  Florida State
25.  Michigan
25.  Oklahoma State

Boise State Drops from 29-32 in Sagarin

One glaring thing needs to be pointed out here:

Mississippi State is rated #22 in Sagarin's new ratings; Boise State is #32.  The two teams both have 7-1 records.  Yet, according to his own data, Boise State's schedule strength is rated as #78 while Miss. State is rated #98.  MSU is 0-1 against Top 10 teams and 0-1 against Top 30 teams, while Boise State is 1-0 against Top 30 teams.

1.    Kansas State
2.    Notre Dame
3.    Florida
4.    LSU
5.    Oklahoma
6.    Georgia
7.    Alabama
8.    Oregon
9.    South Carolina
10.  Texas Tech
11.  Ohio State
12.  Oregon State
13.  Stanford
14.  West Virginia
15.  Arizona
16.  Texas A&M
17.  Texas
18.  Washington
19.  USC
20.  Nebraska
21.  Iowa State
22.  Mississippi State
23.  Oklahoma State
24.  Michigan
25.  Louisville



http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt12.htm

Notre Dame Remains #1 in Blue Through and Through College Football Top 25

When you see polls with wild week-to-week swings, it generally means the voters are reacting to the latest results rather than thinking through the process.  If they have the rankings right, the teams in fact shouldn't move much, as you will note week to week in this poll later in the year as the season progresses.  

Remember as you follow the poll that since both the Pac-12 and Big 12 had a request from Boise State to join their respective leagues and they did not invite the Broncos, the "strength-of-schedule" argument does not work against Boise State for those two conferences, and thus their teams will always be ranked behind Boise State with the same number of losses.  As it should be.  You can't deny a team a place in your conference and then complain about their strength of schedule.  

A team that beats another head-to-head on the field will always be ranked ahead of that team if they have the same record.  As it should be.  If the winner of that game has more losses, further evaluation regarding the closeness and location of the game needs to take place, as well as week-to-week evaluation of all season results.

1-1-1-1-1-1.    Notre Dame (8-0, scored a 30-20 win over #11 Oklahoma; biggest wins over #11 Oklahoma, #16 Stanford, Michigan, BYU and Michigan State)

13-11-7-5-4-2.  Kansas State (8-0, rocked #12 Texas Tech 55-24; biggest wins over #11 Oklahoma, #12 Texas Tech, #13 West Virginia and Iowa State)

2-2-3-3-3-3.    Alabama (7-0, beat Mississippi State 38-7; biggest wins over #24 Mississippi State and Michigan)

4-4-2-2-5-4.    Oregon (8-0; blew away Colorado 70-14; biggest wins over Washington, Arizona and Fresno State)

7-6-10-9-8-5.    Georgia (6-1, downed #6 Florida 17-6; biggest win over #6 Florida, lost to #8 South Carolina)

12-10-4-4-2-6.  Florida (7-1, fell to #5 Georgia 17-6; biggest wins over #7 LSU, #8 South Carolina and #22 Texas A&M)


6-5-8-6-6-7.    LSU (7-1, idle this week; biggest wins over #8 South Carolina, #22 Texas A&M and Washington, lost to #6 Florida)

8-7-5-7-13-8.    South Carolina (6-2, edged Tennessee 38-35; biggest win over #5 Georgia, losses to #6 Florida and #7 LSU)

15-13-11-10-9-9.  Boise State (7-1, throttled Wyoming 42-14; biggest wins over BYU and Fresno State, loss to Michigan State)

20-17-15-8-7-10.  Oregon State (6-1, lost 20-17 to Washington; biggest wins over #20 UCLA, BYU, Wisconsin and Arizona, loss to Washington)

17-19-16-11-10-11.    Oklahoma (5-2, lost 30-20 to #1 Notre Dame; biggest wins over #12 Texas Tech and #17 Texas, loss to #1 Notre Dame and #2 Kansas State)


-------------12-11-12.  Texas Tech (6-2, was slaughtered by #2 Kansas State 55-24; biggest wins over #13 West Virginia, TCU and Iowa State, lost to #2 Kansas State and #11 Oklahoma)

11-8-6-9-14-13.   West Virginia (5-2, did not play; biggest wins over #15 Texas and Baylor, lost to #2 Kansas State and #12 Texas Tech)

10-9-14-18-17-14   Florida State (6-1, thumped Duke 48-7; biggest win over #19 Clemson, loss to North Carolina State)

18-20-19-19-18-15.  Louisville (7-0, scored a 34-31 win over Cincinnati in overtime; biggest wins over Cincinnati and North Carolina)

3--16-13-16-16-16.   Stanford (6-2, survived 24-17 over Washington State; biggest wins over #18 USC and Washington, losses to #1 Notre Dame and Washington)

5-3-9-14-15-17    Texas (6-2, escaped with a 21-17 win over Kansas; biggest wins over Oklahoma State and Baylor, lost to #11 Oklahoma and #13 West Virginia)

16-18-17-15-12-18.  USC (6-2, stumbled at Arizona 39-36; biggest win over Washington, losses to #16 Stanford and Arizona)

15-23-20-20-20-19.  Clemson (7-1, beat Wake Forest 42-7; biggest win over Virginia Tech, loss to #14 Florida State)

23-21-25-25-25-20.  UCLA (6-2, beat Arizona State 45-43; biggest win over #21 Nebraska, lost to #10 Oregon State and California)

----------------------21.  Nebraska (6-2, beat Michigan 23-9; biggest wins over Michigan and Nebraska, lost to #20 UCLA and Ohio State)

----------------------22.  Texas A&M (6-2, beat Auburn 63-21; biggest win over Louisiana Tech, lost to #6 Florida and #7 LSU)

----------------------23.  Kent State (7-1, beat #25 Rutgers 35-23; biggest win over #25 Rutgers, lost to Kentucky)

------------22-22-24.  Mississippi State (7-1, lost 38-7 to #3 Alabama; biggest win over Tennessee, loss to #3 Alabama)

20-24-21-21-25.  Rutgers (7-1, lost to #23 Kent State 35-23; biggest win over South Florida, lost to #23 Kent State)



Dropped Out:  Ohio, TCU, Michigan

Also Considered:  Oklahoma State (6-2), Michigan (5-3), TCU (5-3), Ohio (7-1), Northern Illinois (8-1), Toledo (8-1), Cincinnati (5-2), Washington (4-4), Iowa State (5-3), Utah State (6-2), Fresno State (5-3)

Projected Wolfe Ratings

1.    Kansas State
2.    Notre Dame
3.    Alabama
4.    Ohio State
5.    LSU
6.    Florida
7.    Oregon
8.    South Carolina
9.    Georgia
10.  Oregon State
11.  Louisville
12.  Stanford
13.  Texas A&M
14.  Florida State
15.  Oklahoma
16.  West Virginia
17.  Nebraska
18.  Texas
19.  Arizona
20.  Texas Tech
21.  Mississippi State
22.  Toledo
23.  Clemson
24.  Rutgers
25.  Ohio

Projected Billingsley Ratings

1.    Alabama
2.    Notre Dame
3.    Kansas State
4.    Oregon
5.    LSU
6.    Georgia
7.    Florida
8.    South Carolina
9.    Ohio State
10.  Stanford
11.  Oklahoma
12.  Texas Tech
13.  Boise State
14.  Arizona
15.  Oregon State 
16.  West Virginia
17.  USC
18.  Clemson
19.  Texas
20.  Louisville
21.  Oklahoma State
22.  Washington
23.  Florida State
24.  Texas A&M
25.  Iowa State

Projected Colley Ratings

1.    Notre Dame
2.    Alabama
3.    Kansas State
4.    Ohio State
5.    Florida
6.    Oregon
7.    Oregon State 
8.    Georgia
9.    LSU
10.  Stanford
11.  South Carolina
12.  Florida State
13.  Texas Tech
14.  Mississippi State
15.  Arizona
16.  Nebraska
17.  Texas A&M
18.  Clemson
19.  Toledo
20.  Oklahoma
21.  Boise State
22.  Northwestern
23.  Rutgers
24.  West Virginia
25.  Texas  

Broncos Bust Cowboys 45-14

D.J. Harper rushed for 105 yards and two touchdowns as Boise State bulled past Wyoming 45-14 this afternoon for their seventh straight victory.

Harper scored on runs of 12 and 3 yards to land in fifth place on the all-time Bronco career rushing touchdowns list with 34.  Harper is now just three behind all-time great Cedric Minter in that department.  Freshman sensation Jay Ajayi scored from 15 yards out in the fourth quarter as Boise State slowly wore the Cowboys down.

Joe Southwick was 20-of-28 passes for 198 yards, leading the Bronco offense that connected on 12-of-14 third-down conversions and scored on all five of its red zone chances.

The Boise State defense bent early, but then settled down to limit Wyoming to 270 yards, 106 below its average.  The Bronco "D" had four sacks.  

Wyoming played the game without head coach Dave Christensen, who was suspended for his conduct following the 28-27 loss to Air Force on October 13.

Boise State held a 17-7 halftime lead, then put the game out of reach with 21 unanswered points in the third quarter.  Freshman Shane Williams-Rhodes darted for a 28-yard score, Corey Bell returned a fumble 19 yards for a touchdown and quarterback Grant Hedrick scored from one yard out.

Boise State braces for San Diego State, who will visit Bronco Stadium for the first time in history next Saturday.

Matt Miller Has Broken Boise State School Record for Receptions by Sophomore Year

Receptions By Sophomore Year 

1.    Matt Miller (104) 2011-current
2.    Jeremy Childs (96) 2006-2007

3.    Austin Pettis (95) 2007-2008

4.    Ryan Ikebe (67) 1993-1994
5.    Don Hutt (66) 1971

6.    Mike Holton (64) 1972, 1974

7.    Lou Fanucchi (63) 1999-2000
8.    Matt Miller (58) 2011-current

8.    Jay Swillie (58) 1999-2000

10.  Titus Young (54) 2007-2008
11. Jeb Putzier (49) 1998-1999  

12.  Kyle Efaw (47) 2008-2009

13.  Drisan James (45) 2003-2004
14.  Mike Wilson (41) 1990-1992
14.  Kirby Moore (41) 2009, 2011-current

16.  Terry Hutt (37) 1973-1974

17.  Eric Andrade (36) 1983-1984

18.  Kipp Bedard (35) 1979
19.  Terry Heffner (33) 1987-1988
        Derek Schouman (32) 2003-2004

21.  Brock Forsey (30) 1999-2000

21.  Jeremy Avery (30) 2007-2008

23.  Vinny Perretta (29) 2005-2006

24.  Tyler Shoemaker (28) 2009-2010
25.  Billy Wingfield (25) 1998-1999

       David Hughes (25) 1977-1978
27.  Winky White (24) 1987-1988
28.  Brock Forsey (23) 1998 + 1999
       Larry Stayner (23) 1989

30.  Sheldon Forehand (22) 1989-1990
31.  Jarrett Hausske (21) 1991-1992

Harper Now Alone in 5th Place

With D.J. Harper's touchdown in the first quarter against Wyoming, he is now all alone in fifth place with 33 career rushing touchdowns.  The Top Five:

1.    Ian Johnson (58) 2005-2008
2.    Brock Forsey (50) 1999-2002
3.    Doug Martin (42) 2008-2012
4.    Cedric Minter (37) 1977-1980
5.    D. J. Harper (33) 2007-current

Harper Needs Five Yards to Catch David Mikell

Senior running back D.J. Harper needs five yards to tie David Mikell for 8th place in the career rushing list at Boise State.  Harper has 2,263 yards in his career.

Broncos Face Cowboys Today in Laramie

Boise State ventures to cold Wyoming today for an afternoon contest with the Cowboys.  Anyone who thinks Wyoming is not a dangerous team has not been following the Cowboys this year.  They have lost three games by a combined six points and star sophomore quarterback Brett Smith has missed two of those games due to injury.  But Smith is back guiding the reins of the Cowboy offense this week against the Broncos.

Boise State leads the Mountain West in total defense, scoring defense and pass defense.  The Cowboys will challenge that secondary today, coming into the contest averaging 240 yards per game through the air to rank third in the conference.  Smith is averaging 301.80 yards a game in total offense, a number that would rank 17th in the country but Smith is one game under the minimum number of games played.  Smith would rank 24th in passing efficiency with a solid rating of 150.16  Smith is the only sophomore named to the Manning Award Watch List.

Chris McNeill had eight receptions for 219 yards (6th best in Wyoming history) against Idaho earlier in the year; he's the go-to guy for Wyoming.  McNeill is third in the conference with 65.7 receiving yards per game.  

Up front, Wyoming is led by Nick Carlson.  Carlson has been on the Rimington Trophy Watch List each of the past two seasons, and was selected to the 2012 Rotary Lombardi Watch List as well.  

On the other side of the ball, Mike Purcell leads all Mountain West defensive linemen in tackles with 7.1 per game.  Ghaali Muhammad returned to his linebacker position this year after playing running back as a junior and is enjoying an outstanding season.  Muhammad leads the Pokes with 64 total tackles, 41 of them solo.  Muhammad is tied for #1 in the nation in fumbles recovered with three and is fourth in the Mountain West with 1.07 tackles for loss per game.  Fellow linebacker Korey Jones is second on the team with 60 tackles.  

Strong safety Luke Ruff is on the 2012 Lott IMPACT Trophy Watch List, while cornerback Blair Burns earned First Team Freshman All-America honors last season after recording four interceptions.

The game will also be televised live on CBS Sports Network. CBS Sports Network is available on Channel 613 on DIRECTV and Channel 158 on DISH Network. 

Doug Martin--Next Stop--Superstar!

Doug Martin carried 29 times for 135 yards and a touchdown and caught three passes for 79 yards, including another 64-yard score, leading Tampa Bay to a 36-17 win over Minnesota.  

You might remember Adrian Peterson from his Oklahoma days.  How many yards did he get?  123.

This Week in the BCS Top 25

#1 Alabama put away #11 Mississippi State 38-7.
#2 Florida lost to #10 Georgia 17-9.
#3 Kansas State ripped #14 Texas Tech 55-24.
#4 Oregon defeated new Pac-12 member Colorado, the team the league invited instead of Boise State.  Oregon didn't want to play another tough team this late in the season, and they beat Colorado 70-14.
#5 Notre Dame has been #1 in the Blue Through and Through College Football Poll since week two, once again leading the way in analyzing college football.  Notre Dame whipped #8 Oklahoma 30-13.
#6 LSU is idle.
#7 Oregon State lost at Washington 20-17.
#8 Oklahoma lost to #5 Notre Dame 30-13.
#9 USC went down to Arizona 39-36.
#10 Georgia upset #2 Florida 17-9.
#11 Mississippi State lost badly to #1 Alabama 38-7.
#12 Florida State embarrassed Duke 48-7.
#13 South Carolina outlasted Tennessee 38-35.
#14 Texas Tech was creamed by #3 Kansas State 55-24.
#15 Rutgers turned it over to Kent State 35-23.
#16 Louisville edged Cincinnati 34-31 in overtime.
#17 Stanford held on to beat tough Washington State 24-17.
#18 Clemson blasted Wake Forest 42-7.
#19 West Virginia takes the week off.
#20 Texas A&M blitzed Auburn 63-21.
#21 Boise State downed Wyoming 45-14.
#22 Michigan fell to Nebraska 23-9.
#23 Texas scored with 12 seconds left to top Kansas 21-17.
#24 Ohio dropped from the unbeaten ranks with a loss to Miami of Ohio 23-20.
#25 Wisconsin lost to Michigan State 16-13 in overtime.

BYU blasted Georgia Tech of the ACC 41-17.
Nevada lost to Air Force 48-31.
Fresno State came back to beat New Mexico 49-32.
Michigan State amazingly won a game, beating Wisconsin 16-13 in overtime.
Southern Mississippi lost to Rice 44-17.
Hawai'i lost to Colorado State 42-27.
UNLV lost to San Diego State 24-13.

Former Boise State Broncos in the NFL--Week Seven

Here are the results for former Boise State players in the NFL.  This will be updated as results come in.

Richie Brockel--Carolina Panthers (no statistics in Carolina loss)
Ryan Clady--Denver Broncos (bye week)
Daryn Colledge--Arizona Cardinals (starting lineman in Arizona loss)
Tyrone Crawford--Dallas Cowboys (no statistics in Dallas win)
Tommy Gallarda--Atlanta Falcons (bye week)
George Iloka--Cincinnati Bengals (no statistics in Cincinnati loss)
Jeron Johnson--Seattle Seahawks (no statistics in Seattle loss)
Doug Martin--Tampa Bay Buccaneers (16 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown and three receptions for 37 yards in Tampa Bay loss)
Shea McClellin--Chicago Bears (2 tackles, 1 solo, with half a sack as Chicago won)
Quintin Mikell--St. Louis Rams (6 tackles, 5 solo, in Ram loss)
Kellen Moore--Detroit Lions (did not play in Detroit loss)
Austin Pettis--St. Louis Rams (2 catches for 17 yards and a touchdown in St. Louis loss)
Nate Potter--Arizona Cardinals (Potter's Cardinals lost)
Orlando Scandrick--Dallas Cowboys (3 tackles, 2 solo, in Dallas win)
Kyle Wilson--New York Jets (2 solo tackles in Jet loss)
Billy Winn--Cleveland Browns (1 tackle in Cleveland loss)
Titus Young--Detroit Lions (leading receiver for the Lions in Detroit loss--6 catches for 81 yards)

Boise State Falls Five Spots in Massey Ratings

http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?lg=cf&sub=FBS&mid=6

Boise State #15 in Billingsley

http://www.cfrc.com/Ratings_2012/WK_8.htm

Boise State Falls From #24 to #31 in Wolfe

I remember Boise State being rated much higher when they were in the WAC with one loss.  The Mountain West is rated much, much higher than the WAC.  Maybe it is good that the computers are leaving the equation in two years.

http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/ratings.htm#first

Boise State #22 in Colley

http://www.colleyrankings.com/

Remaining Schedules for Teams Ranked #10 and Below

This is an update of last week's post, but for fun, be sure to check out that and the predicted final ranking and predicted final record to see how accurate it was.

Note:  The number shown prior to each team is the current ranking of each team.  The teams are shown in order of the final Colley computer rating, based on Sagarin's Predictor rating of how the rest of their season will go.  I have included #10 Georgia because they are just a few points ahead of #11 Mississippi State in the Projected BCS Standings, well within the margin of error.  I have also included Cincinnati, which some projections have in today's Top 25, as well as Northern Illinois, which Sagarin has winning out.

The significant changes since last week were brought about by three upsets:  Toledo over Cincinnati, LSU over Texas A&M and Texas Tech over TCU.  In addition to the effects those losses had on the ranked losers, the Cincinnati loss also affected Rutgers, which Sagarin now predicts will go undefeated (previously, Cincinnati was their only predicted loss.)

The below doesn't assume that Michigan, for example, will finish 10th, because some in the Top 10 may lose.  What it does indicate is that, for teams ranked #10 and below, Michigan is predicted to finish the highest in Final Colley Rating.  It also shows that, for Boise State to finish #12 in Colley, the Broncos need six teams to lose that otherwise are predicted to win.



#21 Michigan:
at Nebraska
at Minnesota
vs. Northwestern
vs. Iowa
at Ohio State
vs. Ohio State in Big Ten Championship


Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  94.07
Sagarin predicted final record:  11-2



#12 Rutgers:
vs. Kent State
vs. Army
at Cincinnati
at Pittsburgh
vs. Louisville

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  88.44
Sagarin predicted final record:  12-0





#16 South Carolina:
vs. Tennessee
at Arkansas
vs. Wofford
at Clemson


Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  87.19
Sagarin predicted final record:  10-2



#17 Stanford:
vs. Washington State
at Colorado
vs. Oregon State
at Oregon
at UCLA

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds: 84.37
Sagarin predicted final record:  9-3



#13 Texas Tech:
at Kansas State
vs. Texas
vs. Kansas
at Oklahoma State
at Baylor

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  84.29
Sagarin predicted final record:  10-2



#21 Texas A&M:
at Auburn
at Mississippi State
at Alabama
vs. Sam Houston State
vs. Missouri

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  81.87
Sagarin predicted final record:  9-3



#15 Louisville:
vs. Cincinnati
vs. Temple
at Syracuse
vs. Connecticut
at Rutgers

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  81.14
Sagarin predicted final record:  11-1



#14 Florida State:
vs. Duke
at Virginia Tech
at Maryland
vs. Florida
vs. North Carolina in ACC Championship

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  79.02
Sagarin predicted final record:  11-2


#18 Boise State:
at Wyoming
vs. San Diego State
at Hawai'i
vs. Colorado State
at Nevada

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  78.54
Sagarin predicted final record:  11-1


#32 Northern Illinois:
at Western Michigan
vs. Massachusetts
vs. Toledo
at Eastern Michigan
vs. Kent State in MAC Championship


Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  78.41
Sagarin predicted final record:  12-1



#18 Clemson:
at Wake Forest
at Duke
vs. Maryland
vs. North Carolina State
vs. South Carolina

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds: 76.70
Sagarin predicted final record:  10-2




#10 Georgia:
vs. Florida
vs. Mississippi
at Auburn
vs. Georgia Southern
vs. Georgia Tech

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  76.62
Sagarin predicted final record:  10-2


#24 Ohio:
at Miami of Ohio
vs. Eastern Michigan
vs. Bowling Green
at Ball State
at Kent State


Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds: 73.72
Sagarin predicted final record:  11-1



#11 Mississippi State:
at Alabama
vs. Texas A&M
at LSU
vs. Arkansas
at Mississippi

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  72.55
Sagarin predicted final record:  8-3


#22 Texas:
at Kansas
at Texas Tech
vs. Iowa State
vs. TCU
at Kansas State


Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  72.11
Sagarin predicted final record:  8-4



#29 Cincinnati:
at Louisville
vs. Syracuse
at Temple
vs. Rutgers
vs. South Florida
at Connecticut

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  71.48
Sagarin predicted final record:  10-2



#23 West Virginia:
vs. TCU
at Oklahoma State
vs. Oklahoma
at Iowa State
vs. Kansas

Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  60.46
Sagarin predicted final record:  6-6


#27 TCU:
at Oklahoma State
vs. West Virginia
vs. Kansas State
at Texas
vs. Oklahoma


Predicted Colley final computer rating using Sagarin Predictor odds:  59.03
Sagarin predicted final record:  6-6

Boise State #19 in Projected BCS Standings

The BCS Standings are actually fascinating to watch if you know what to look for; it's really too bad they are shelving the computers in favor of a backroom committee.  The system in two years will be far less transparent and far less enjoyable for fans to follow.

One thing to look for is the difference in the three components.  Naturally, the two polls pretty much mirror each other because humans are prone to emotion and thus built-in biases.  But if a team is ranked right, all three components will match up rather nicely.  So when you see numbers beside a team like Florida State, you can easily spot that something is amiss.  Numbers that different mean that at least one of those components and more likely two are dreadfully off.  If Florida State is truly a Top 10 team, they would have to play about three more ranked teams to bring that computer rating up when the truth is, they have at most one (Clemson) on their schedule.  You will also note that that same team, Clemson, has zero computer points (They did get rated in one of the six computers.)

What this means is that Florida State is being artificially propped up by the voters when they haven't played a schedule deserving of a high ranking.  Their schedule strength will go up as they sift through the ACC, but it won't approach Top 10 in the computers.  Often what will happen is the team ranked too high will lose somewhere down the road, bringing the human polls more in line with the computers.  And, the computer rating will go up somewhat (as long as they keep winning) to get closer to the polls.  

Obviously if some teams are overrated you will have the exact opposite situation for other teams.  Case in point--Rutgers, which is #10 in the computers but much lower in the polls.  Rutgers has played a much-more worthy schedule in the tough Big East than either of the two ACC teams.  It doesn't mean they'll finish the season higher--they still have to win, but again it points out that something has to give.  Another such example is Texas Tech.

These projections are slightly different than the early morning projections, and differences of less than 12 points reflects the margin of error, so the official BCS Standings will deviate somewhat from the projections shown below.  They are simply meant to give you an idea what the official Standings look like.

1.    Alabama 100.00% + 99.76% + 91.00 = 290.76
2.    Florida 90.10% + 91.20% + 99.00 = 280.30
3.    Kansas State 89.90% + 89.43% + 94.00 = 273.33
4.    Oregon 95.12% + 94.85% + 72.00 = 261.97
5.    Notre Dame 82.78% + 82.57% + 93.00 = 258.35
6.    LSU 78.92% + 78.96% + 72.00 = 239.88
7.    Oregon State 66.03% + 69.60% + 83.00 = 218.63
8.    Oklahoma 73.49% + 70.30% + 62.00 = 205.79
9.    USC 68.75% + 67.27% + 45.00 = 181.02
10.  Georgia 57.63% + 55.76% + 49.00 = 162.39
11.  Mississippi State 54.24% + 55.72% + 50.00 = 159.96
12.  Rutgers 43.19% + 41.91% + 68.00 = 153.10
13.  Texas Tech 38.71% + 37.36% + 74.00 = 150.07
14.  Florida State 64.27% + 66.47% + 8.00 = 138.74
15.  Louisville 48.81% + 46.05% + 35.00 = 129.86
16.  South Carolina 40.54% + 41.36% + 45.00 = 126.90
17.  Stanford 27.19% + 32.31% + 51.00 = 110.50
18.  Clemson 53.42% + 54.33% + 0.00 = 107.75
19.  Boise State 27.59% + 26.50% + 27.00 = 81.09
20.  Michigan 17.90% + 17.04% + 18.00 = 52.94
21.  Texas A&M 15.53% + 16.17% + 11.00 = 42.70
22.  Texas 7.39% + 8.24% + 25.00 = 40.63
23.  West Virginia 11.73% + 12.63% + 17.00 = 41.36
24.  Ohio 8.95% + 10.19% + 15.00 = 34.14
25.  Wisconsin 7.05% + 4.73% + 9.00 = 20.78

26.  Louisiana Tech 6.78% + 4.42% + 3.00 = 14.20
27.  TCU 4.81% + 6.78% + 0.00 = 11.59
28.  Nebraska 4.81% + 4.45% + 0.00 = 9.26
29.  Cincinnati 3.46% + 4.03% + 0.00 = 7.49
30.  Oklahoma State 2.51% + 2.50% + 0.00 = 5.01
31.  Toledo 2.03% + 1.53% + 6.00 = 9.56
32.  Northern Illinois .95% + .24% + 2.00 = 3.19
33.  Arizona 0.00% + 0.00% + 3.00 = 3.00
34.  Tulsa 1.42% + 1.36% + 0.00 = 2.78
35.  Arizona State 1.42% + 1.29% + 0.00 = 2.71
36.  Duke 1.08% + .35% + 0.00 = 1.43

Harris Poll Percentages

1.    Alabama 99.76%
2.    Oregon 94.85%
3.    Florida 91.20%
4.    Kansas State 89.43%
5.    Notre Dame 82.57%
6.    LSU 78.96%
7.    Oklahoma 70.30%
8.    Oregon State 69.60%
9.    USC 67.27%
10.  Florida State 66.47%
11.  Georgia 55.76%
12.  Mississippi State 55.72%
13.  Clemson 54.33%
14.  Louisville 46.05%
15.  Rutgers 41.91%
16.  South Carolina 41.36%
17.  Texas Tech 37.36%
18.  Stanford 32.31%
19.  Boise State 26.50%
20.  Michigan 17.04%
21.  Texas A&M 16.17%
22.  West Virginia 12.63%
23.  Ohio 10.19%
24.  Texas 8.24%
25.  TCU 6.78%

26.  Wisconsin 4.73%
27.  Nebraska 4.45%
28.  Louisiana Tech 4.42%
29.  Cincinnati 4.03%
30.  Oklahoma State 2.50%
31.  Toledo 1.53%
32.  Tulsa 1.36%
33.  Arizona State 1.29%
34.  North Carolina State 1.08%
35.  Northwestern .59%
36.  Duke .35%
37.  Northern Illinois .24%

Coaches Poll Percentages

Boise State wants to be around 50% in the polls and be ahead of Ohio, which I believe could lose 2 or 3 games.  In fact, Sagarin believes Northern Illinois is the strongest team in the MAC.  But a one-loss MAC team likely will not pass Boise State in the polls, even in the event they do in the computers.  If Michigan loses a game, Boise State needs about 40% support in the polls.  So they have a ways to go.

1.    Alabama 100.00%
2.    Oregon 95.12%
3.    Florida 90.10%
4.    Kansas State 89.90%
5.    Notre Dame 82.78%
6.    LSU 78.92%
7.    Oklahoma 73.49%
8.    USC 68.75%
9.    Oregon State 66.03%
10.  Florida State 64.27%
11.  Georgia 57.63%
12.  Mississippi State 54.24%
13.  Clemson 53.42%
14.  Louisville 48.81%
15.  Rutgers 43.19%
16.  South Carolina 40.54%
17.  Texas Tech 38.71%
18.  Boise State 27.59%
19.  Stanford 27.19%
20.  Michigan 17.90%
21.  Texas A&M 15.53%
22.  West Virginia 11.73%
23.  Ohio 8.95%
24.  Texas 7.39%
25.  Wisconsin 7.05%

26.  Louisiana Tech 6.78%
27.  Nebraska 4.81%
27.  TCU 4.81%
29.  Cincinnati 3.46%
30.  Oklahoma State 2.51%
31.  Toledo 2.03%
32.  Arizona State 1.42%
32.  Tulsa 1.42%
34.  Duke 1.08%
35.  Northern Illinois .95%