Sunday, October 30, 2016

Blue Through and Through College Football Rankings: Week Nine

With Clemson's win over another high quality team, they again have the most impressive resume this season, with three wins over Top 25 teams and another over a team in the "others to be considered" list.  Alabama, last week's #1, has two wins over Top 25 teams and one other impressive win.

Questions in ranking differences between teams next to each other can usually be answered by looking at their resume. Alabama is ranked ahead of Michigan because their win over #4 Texas A&M is the biggest of the year.  This comparison is close, but Alabama's wins are slightly bigger than Michigan's.

#4 Texas A&M is ranked behind Michigan because, even though they have bigger wins, they lost a game to Alabama that wasn't close.  A&M is ranked ahead of Washington because Washington's biggest win is a narrow win over the #21 team.  Because Washington had a tough time with #21, it is logical that they also would be beaten pretty easy by Alabama.

Although Louisville's only loss was a close one to the #1 team, they are ranked behind Washington because Washington's win, as close as it was, was much more impressive than Louisville's biggest win over an unranked team.  Louisville is ranked ahead of Western Michigan because not only is their biggest win much more impressive, but their only loss was a narrow loss to #1.

Western Michigan is ranked ahead of Ohio State because they are unbeaten.  While it is true that they don't have a quality win (defined as a win over a Top 25 team or one being considered), Ohio State lost to the #20 team.  One cannot make the same case for the Buckeyes that they can for Louisville or Texas A&M, the one-loss teams ahead of Ohio State, because those teams lost to #1 and #2 while Ohio State lost to #20 Penn State.  A team that loses to a #20 team is dangerously close to being ranked below that team, and would be with one more loss.

And so on...

I'll point out one other comparison, between #13 Baylor and #14 West Virginia.  Both teams lost this week, and West Virginia's loss was to a ranked team while Baylor lost to unranked Texas.  By using that logic, West Virginia should be ahead.  The big difference?  The common opponent Oklahoma State.  Baylor beat Oklahoma State while West Virginia lost to Oklahoma State.

This was a week of several upsets.  Because of this, teams that lost didn't fall as much as they perhaps otherwise would have.  Even with losses, their resume is still more impressive than teams behind them.


(Note:  the rankings are based on logic rather than hype or potential.  Teams with the same record are judged by their biggest wins and their losses, if any.  Impressive wins over Top 25 teams are more important than other wins, and losses to Top 25 teams hurt far less than other losses.

The "Biggest Win" refers to the highest-ranked win; generally, only ranked teams and teams being considered are listed.  Sometimes, as in the case of Western Michigan, they don't have a win over teams in these rankings, and it is unknown at this time which of their listed wins is the biggest.)

2-1   Clemson (8-0) survived Florida State, winning 37-34; Biggest Wins: #6 Louisville 42-36, #11 Auburn 19-13, #16 Troy 30-24 and Florida State 37-34
1-2    Alabama (7-0) did not play; Biggest Wins: #4 Texas A&M 33-14, #25 Tennessee 49-10 and Arkansas 49-30
3-3   Michigan (8-0) held on to beat Michigan State 32-23; Biggest Wins: #10 Wisconsin 14-7, #20 Penn State 49-10 and Colorado 45-28
4-4     Texas A&M (7-1) demolished New Mexico State 52-10; Biggest Wins: #11 Auburn 29-16, #25 Tennessee 45-38 in two overtimes and Arkansas 45-24; Lost to #2 Alabama 33-14
10-5   Washington (8-0) came from behind to beat #21 Utah 31-24; Biggest Win: #21 Utah 31-24
5-6    Louisville (7-1) survived a thriller with a 32-25 win over Virginia in the final seconds; Biggest Win: Florida State 63-20; Lost to #1 Clemson 42-36
11-7 Western Michigan (8-0) did not play; Biggest Win: Northwestern 22-21 or Central Michigan 49-10
14-8     Ohio State (7-1) survived a scare from Northwestern 24-20; Biggest Wins: #10 Wisconsin 30-23 in overtime and Oklahoma 45-24; Lost to #20 Penn State 24-21
9-9 Nebraska (7-1) lost at #10 Wisconsin 23-17 in overtime; Biggest Win: #23 Wyoming 52-17; Lost to #10 Wisconsin 23-17 in overtime
15-10   Wisconsin (6-2) outlasted #9 Nebraska 23-17 in overtime; Biggest Wins:  #9 Nebraska 23-17 in overtime and #16 LSU 16-14; Lost to #3 Michigan 14-7 and #8 Ohio State 30-23 in overtime
13-11 Auburn (6-2) downed Mississippi 40-29; Biggest Wins:  #16 LSU 18-13 and Arkansas 56-3; Lost to #1 Clemson 19-13 and #5 Texas A&M 29-16 
6-12 Boise State (7-1) lost a heartbreaker to #23 Wyoming 30-28; Biggest Win:  Washington State 31-28; Lost to #23 Wyoming 30-28
7-13   Baylor (6-1) lost to Texas 35-34; Biggest Win: #22 Oklahoma State 35-24; Lost to Texas 35-34
8-14  West Virginia (6-1) lost to #22 Oklahoma State 37-20; Biggest Win: TCU 34-10; Lost to #22 Oklahoma State 37-20
16-15 Florida (6-1) put away Georgia 24-10; Biggest Win: Georgia 24-10; Lost to #25 Tennessee 38-28
19-16 LSU (4-2) had a bye week; Biggest Wins:  Mississippi 38-21 and Southern Mississippi 45-10;  Lost to #10 Wisconsin 16-14 and #11 Auburn 18-13 
18-17 Troy (6-1) was idle; Biggest Win:  Southern Mississippi 37-31; Lost to #1 Clemson 30-24
21-18  Virginia Tech (6-2) outlasted Pittsburgh 39-36;  Biggest Wins:  #19 North Carolina 34-3 and Pittsburgh 39-36; Lost to #25 Tennessee 45-24 and Syracuse 31-17
22-19  North Carolina (6-2) did not play; Biggest Wins: Florida State 37-35 and Pittsburgh 37-36; Lost to #18 Virginia Tech 34-3 and Georgia 33-24
-----20 Penn State (6-2) piled on Purdue 62-24; Biggest Win:  #8 Ohio State 24-21; Lost to #3 Michigan 49-10 and Pittsburgh 42-39
20-21 Utah (7-2) lost to #5 Washington 31-24; Biggest Win: USC 31-27; Lost to #5 Washington 31-24 and California 28-23
-----22 Oklahoma State (6-2) shocked previously unbeaten #14 West Virginia 37-20; Biggest Wins:  #14 West Virginia 37-20 and Pittsburgh 45-38; Lost to #13 Baylor 35-24 and Central Michigan 30-27
-----23 Wyoming (6-2) upset #12 Boise State 30-28; Biggest Win:  #12 Boise State 30-28; Lost to #9 Nebraska 52-17 and Eastern Michigan 27-24
-----24 South Florida (7-2) knocked off Navy 52-45; Biggest Win: Navy 52-45; Lost to Florida State 55-35 and Temple 46-30
12-25    Tennessee (5-3) lost to South Carolina 24-21; Biggest Wins: #15 Florida 38-28 and #18 Virginia Tech 45-24; Lost to #2 Alabama 49-10, #4 Texas A&M 45-38 in 2 OT's and South Carolina 24-21



Dropped Out:  Florida State, Oklahoma, Houston, Navy



Also Considered:
Navy (5-2) fell to #24 South Florida 52-45:  Biggest Wins:  Houston 45-40; Lost to #24 South Florida 52-45 and Air Force 28-14 
Houston (7-2) came back to beat Central Florida 31-24; Biggest Win: Oklahoma 33-23; Lost to Navy 45-40 and SMU 38-16
Arkansas (5-3) did not play; Biggest Win: TCU 41-38; Lost to #2 Alabama 49-30, #5 Texas A&M 45-24, and #13 Auburn 56-3
Oklahoma (6-2) creamed Kansas 56-3:  Biggest Win:  TCU 52-46; Lost to #8 Ohio State 45-24 and Houston 33-23
Florida State (5-3) lost to #1 Clemson 37-34; Biggest Win:  #24 South Florida 55-35; Lost to #1 Clemson 37-34, #6 Louisville 63-20 and #19 North Carolina 37-35
Colorado (6-2) had a bye week; Biggest Win:  Arizona State 40-16; Lost to #3 Michigan 45-28 and USC 21-17
Washington State (6-2) stormed back to beat Oregon State 35-31; Biggest Win:  Arizona State 37-32; Lost to #12 Boise State 31-28 and Eastern Washington 45-42
San Diego State (7-1) outclassed Utah State 40-13; Biggest Win: California 45-40 and Utah State 40-13; Lost to South Alabama 42-24
Pittsburgh (5-3) lost to #18 Virginia Tech 39-36;  Biggest Win:  Penn State 42-39; Lost to #18 Virginia Tech 39-36, #19 North Carolina 37-36 and #22 Oklahoma State 45-38

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