Here are our initial college football rankings. Ranking services should generally wait until the sixth or seventh game--rankings released before that are a crapshoot because no one knows who the best teams are until we see patterns. Our rankings, unlike the AP and Coaches polls, are based on actual results and logic. A bad loss counts much more than a big win, but other than than, we evaluate the teams based on the number and quality of good wins and the number and quality of their losses. A bad loss is defined as losing to a team not under consideration, while a quality win is defined as a win over any other team being considered.
We start with each team being equal, then move them up or down based on their season performance vs. that of the teams around them. We separate them by record and then evaluate them against each other, starting with undefeated teams and moving down. When we compare teams with the same record, the ones with any bad losses are always going to be ranked lower, and those with quality wins are going to be ranked ahead of those without. A team with a worse record can be ranked ahead of another if they have less bad losses and/or more quality wins.
Often, especially late in the year, we have situations where a trio of teams have 2-1 records against each other, so the head-to-head matchup is essentially tied between those three. In those cases, we break the tie with the evaluation of their best wins and losses and season records.
Texas A&M has the most impressive resume, with wins over #14 Utah, #18 Notre Dame and #30 LSU. Indiana owns wins over #7 Oregon, #28 Iowa and #33 Illinois and is thus second.
The polls mistakenly have several SEC teams ranked high and ahead of Alabama, including Georgia and Vanderbilt. Both these teams lost to #8 Alabama, and since the Tide had a horrible loss to Florida State and all three have the same record, Georgia and Vanderbilt cannot be ranked ahead of Alabama, nor higher in the rankings given Alabama's bad loss. Mississippi does not have a bad loss, but they lost to #9 Georgia and thus must be ranked behind the Bulldogs. All of these are brought down by Alabama's bad loss to an out-of-conference team.
Miami of Florida cannot be ranked high either. The Hurricanes lost to Louisville, which lost to Virginia and Virginia has that bad loss to North Carolina State. So the correct order of those three ACC teams is: Virginia, Louisville and Miami of Florida. It also follows logically that Notre Dame and USC, two teams that otherwise would be in the Top 10, have to be behind Miami, as Notre Dame lost to Miami and USC lost to Notre Dame.
Michigan suffers a similar fate, as they otherwise would be ranked much higher, but lost to USC, which lost to Notre Dame, which lost to Miami of Florida, which lost to Louisville, which lost to Virginia. Virginia has to be the highest-ranked of those teams by virtue of head-to-head matchups, but have a bad loss to North Carolina State, one which dooms Louisville to be ranked below them. Washington also suffers a hit with their loss to Michigan and thus must be ranked below Michigan.
Boise State also suffers from a bad loss by Memphis to UAB. The Broncos beat #25 UNLV, but must be ranked below Memphis, which beat South Florida, and South Florida, whom the Broncos lost to. Memphis has the worst loss among these 39 teams and should not be ranked, as the human polls suggest.
At this point in the season, two bad losses disqualifies a team from consideration. They could get back in later in the year.
Most Important: If a team beats another, they cannot ever be ranked below them as long as that team has the same or worse record. In other words, we rank them logically.
Please write in the comments if you have a question why we ranked teams the way we did.
Here are the Top 25:
#1 Texas A&M (8-0) Destroyed #27 LSU 41-25, (Quality Wins: #14 Utah, #18 Notre Dame and #30 LSU)
#2 Indiana (8-0) Pounded UCLA 56-6, (Quality Wins: #7 Oregon, #28 Iowa and #33 Illinois)
#3 Ohio State (7-0) Did not play, (Quality Wins: #29 Texas and #33 Washington)
#4 Georgia Tech (8-0) Destroyed Syracuse 41-16, (Quality Win: #38 Wake Forest; Biggest Wins: Clemson and Duke)
#5 BYU (8-0) Staged a wild comeback to beat Iowa State 41-27, (Quality Wins: None; Best Win: Iowa State)
#6 Navy (7-0) Ran over Florida Atlantic 42-32, (Quality Wins: None; Best Wins: Air Force and UAB)
#7 Oregon (7-1) Got by Wisconsin 21-7, (Quality Wins: None; Best Win: Northwestern, Lost to #2 Indiana)
#8 Alabama (7-1) Had to struggle from behind to beat South Carolina 29-22, (Quality Wins: #9 Georgia, #10 Vanderbilt and #19 Tennessee, Lost to Florida State), Bad Loss: Florida State)
#9 Georgia (6-1) Did not play, ( Quality Wins: #11 Mississippi and #19 Tennessee, Lost to #8 Alabama)
#10 Vanderbilt (7-1) Prevailed over #20 Missouri 17-10, (Quality Wins: #20 Missouri and #27 LSU, Lost to #8 Alabama)
#11 Mississippi (7-1) Topped #30 Oklahoma 34-26, (Quality Wins: #27 LSU and #30 Oklahoma, Lost to #9 Georgia)
#12 Texas Tech (7-1) Overwhelmed Oklahoma State 42-0, (Quality Wins: #13 Houston and #14 Utah, Lost to Arizona State, Bad Loss: Arizona State)
#13 Houston (7-1) Upended Arizona State 24-16, (Quality Wins: None; Biggest Win: Arizona State, Lost to #12 Texas Tech)
#14 Utah (6-2) Creamed Colorado 53-7, Quality Win: None, Biggest Win: Arizona State, Lost to #5 BYU and #12 Texas Tech)
#15 Virginia (7-1) Outlasted North Carolina 17-16, (Quality Win: #16 Louisville, Lost to North Carolina State, Bad Loss: North Carolina State)
#16 Louisville (6-1) Bumped Boston College 38-24, (Quality Wins: #17 Miami of Florida and #22 James Madison, Lost to #15 Virginia)
#17 Miami of Florida (6-1) Smothered Stanford 42-7, (Quality Wins: #18 Notre Dame and #37 South Florida, Lost to #16 Louisville)
#18 Notre Dame (5-2) Did not play, (Quality Wins: #23 USC and #37 Boise State, Lost to #1 Texas A&M and #17 Miami of Florida)
#19 Tennessee (6-2) Toppled Kentucky 56-34, (Quality Wins: None; Biggest Win: Mississippi State, Lost to #8 Alabama and #9 Georgia)
#20 Missouri (6-2) Fell to #10 Vanderbilt 17-10, (Quality Wins: None; Biggest Wins: Kansas, Auburn and South Carolina, Lost to #8 Alabama and #10 Vanderbilt)
#21 Tulane (6-1) Did not play, (Quality Wins: None; Biggest Wins: Duke and East Carolina, Lost to #11 Mississippi)
#22 James Madison (6-1) Did not play, (Quality Wins: None; Biggest Win: Old Dominion, Lost to #16 Louisville)
#23 USC (5-2) Did not play, (Quality Win: #31 Michigan, Lost to #18 Notre Dame and #33 Illinois)
#24 North Texas (7-1) Put away Charlotte 54-20, (Quality Wins: None; Biggest Win: Army, Lost to #36 South Florida)
#25 UNLV (6-1) Did not play, (Quality Wins: None; Biggest Win: UCLA, Lost to #37 Boise State)
Also Considered:
#26 Cincinnati (7-1) beat Baylor 41-20, (Quality Wins: None; Biggest Win: Iowa State, Lost to #39 Nebraska)
#27 LSU (5-3) Lost to #1 Texas A&M 41-25, (Quality Wins: None; Biggest Wins, Florida and South Carolina, Lost to #1 Texas A&M, #10 Vanderbilt and #11 Mississippi )
#28 Iowa (6-2) Blasted Minnesota 41-3, (Quality Wins: None, Biggest Win: Minnesota, Lost to #2 Indiana and Iowa State; Bad Loss: Iowa State)
#29 Texas (5-2) Came from behind to beat Mississippi State 45-38, (Quality Win: #30 Oklahoma, Lost to #3 Ohio State and Florida, Bad Loss: Florida)
#30 Oklahoma (6-2) Lost to #11 Mississippi 34-26, (Quality Win: #31 Michigan, Lost to #11 Mississippi and #29 Texas
#31 Michigan (6-2)Turned Back Michigan State 31-20 (Quality Wins: #32 Washington and #39 Nebraska, Lost to #23 USC and #30 Oklahoma)
#32 Washington (6-2) Beat #29 Illinois 42-25, (Quality Win: #33 Illinois, Lost to #3 Ohio State and #31 Michigan)
#33 Illinois (5-3) lost to #32 Washington 42-25, (Quality Win: #23 USC, Lost to #2 Indiana, #3 Ohio State and #32 Washington)
#34 San Diego State (6-1) Blanked Fresno State 23-0, (Quality Wins: None; Best Win: California, Lost to Washington State, Bad Loss: Washington State)
#35 Memphis (7-1) Beat #36 South Florida 34-31, (Quality Win: #36 South Florida, Lost to UAB, Bad Loss: UAB)
#36 South Florida (6-2) Lost to #35 Memphis 34-31, (Quality Wins: #24 North Texas and #37 Boise State, Lost to #17 Miami of Florida and #35 Memphis)
#37 Boise State (6-2) beat Nevada 24-3 (Quality Win: #25 UNLV, Losses to #18 Notre Dame and #36 South Florida)
#38 Wake Forest (5-2) Nudged SMU 13-12, (Quality Wins: None; Biggest Win: SMU, Lost to #4 Georgia Tech and North Carolina State, Bad Loss: North Carolina State)
#39 Nebraska (6-2) Got by Northwestern 28-21, (Quality Win: #26 Cincinnati, Lost to #31 Michigan and Minnesota, Bad Loss: Minnesota)
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