Boise State's Path to a BCS Bowl

There is a lot of misinformation regarding Boise State and its chances for a BCS Bowl. This should help clear it up. They are arranged in order of importance. If each result occurs moving from Item One down the list, the likelihood of a BCS Bowl increases. I believe that the first six items must occur for Boise State to have a realistic chance at one of the big bowl games.

1. Boise State must beat Wyoming

Duh. But before Bronco Nation moves on to Item Two, keep in mind that this is a vastly improved Wyoming team that we saw last year. I warned you about Nevada last year. Few listened. I warned you about TCU. Few listened. If Boise State doesn't do some serious improving on the defensive line, and thinks they can just waltz through the game, they have another thing coming. It's time for Boise State to get serious and play their best football.

2. Boise State must beat New Mexico

It will be Senior Day. Sometimes it's tough to focus for the team. But with so much on the line (if Boise State successfully crosses off Item One), I don't think that will be a problem.

3. Stanford must lose to Notre Dame

If Boise State takes care of their own business in Items 1 and 2, I have selected this as the third most important. There are four BCS at-large bids. To be eligible for one of these prized invites, a team must finish in the Top 14 of the Final BCS Standings. Houston is set to get one if they keep winning because they will be the highest-ranked "non-AQ" team that is a conference champion. The SEC is guaranteed to get one of the at-large because they have five teams in the Top 14. That leaves two. If Stanford wins this game, they most likely will finish in the Top 4 of the BCS Standings. As we saw last year, if a team finishes in the Top 4, they are guaranteed an at-large bid. Guaranteed, meaning no chance that Stanford will not be in a BCS Bowl. That means there will only be one at-large berth up for grabs with a host of teams competing with Boise State. Much better to have a shot at two berths than just one.

If Stanford loses, they will merely be "in a pool of eligible teams". Yes, they have Andrew Luck in their favor, but they also notoriously travel very poorly, meaning Stanford fans do not follow their team on the road.

4. LSU must beat Arkansas

This is the next most important Item. If LSU wins, Arkansas is still in the Top 14 of the BCS, preventing other unwanted teams from scrambling for position. Yet they will not get an at-large because they will be behind LSU and Alabama. If Arkansas wins, on the other hand, mayhem. The first six tiebreakers will not break a three-way tie. In this case, the lowest ranked team in the final BCS Standings will be eliminated and then the head-to-head winner between the other two will be the team going to Atlanta to face Georgia in the SEC Championship game.

In any case, this opens up a can of worms that we don't even want to touch. It increases the likelihood that three SEC teams will make BCS Bowls, which, like Item 3 above, greatly diminishes Boise State's chances, leaving just one at-large berth to be fought over like fresh meat. The reason is because the top 2 teams in the Final BCS Standings automatically make the "championship game". The SEC Champion also automatically makes a BCS Bowl. That would make three automatic berths for the SEC, thus taking away one of the BCS Bowls, as a Stanford win would do.

5. LSU must beat Georgia

While not identical to Item 4, it is similar in that a Georgia win, as much as it would help Boise State in the computers and Propaganda War, would hurt the Broncos in that the SEC would likely get three BCS Bowl berths.

6. Michigan must lose to Ohio State

Some may wonder why this result isn't higher. Note that I still feel it is essential for Boise State to have a good chance at a BCS Bowl. But unlike Items 3, 4 and 5, if this result occurs, it doesn't automatically take a BCS bowl. Sure, it appears to be likely that Michigan, despite being one of the lowest-ranked teams in the pool, with its rich history of doing this or that, and its rich fan base, and Craig James loves Michigan like his mother, blah, blah, blah, would be chosen. But it isn't automatic and you don't know what the BCS Bowl committees will do. So I believe a Michigan loss is necessary, but not a deal-breaker if it doesn't happen.

7. Oklahoma State needs to beat Oklahoma

There are two ways to look at Bedlam. I'll explain. If Oklahoma State wins, they have the best chance of preventing an All-SEC title game and by extension, three SEC BCS teams. Further, they would give Oklahoma three losses and likely drop them out of the Top 14, which as I said, is where a team has to be if they want to party on New Years or afterwards.

The other way to look at it--If the first 6 Items occur positively for Boise State, we don't need to break up the SEC and its Three BCS Bowl Dream. Oklahoma State, with two consecutive losses in this scenario, may not be the attractive candidate for an at-large berth that we now think of them as. An Oklahoma-Boise State matchup in the Fiesta Bowl would be hard for that bowl to turn down.

8. Kansas State needs to lose to Iowa State

Kansas State, while not being the most attractive candidate (they don't travel well either), is still a formidable team to be considered in the at-large pool. Although Stanford, Oklahoma State, Michigan, and a possible third SEC team are much more likely to be chosen, they still could get in over Boise State. A Kansas State loss would remove them from consideration as they would fall out of the Top 14.

9. Houston needs to lose

This may be another case where you wonder why this Item isn't higher. Unlike the first six, it doesn't automatically remove a team from guaranteed or likely inclusion. Unlike Item 8, it doesn't remove a team from consideration, for if Houston loses, TCU could replace them as the automatic "non-AQ", if they can get in the Top 16 and be ahead of the Big East Champion. TCU was ranked #20 in yesterday's BCS Standings, and has a ways to go. But they would likely jump over Houston if Houston loses, and they would jump over the loser of the Big 10 Championship. So while a Kansas State loss definitely takes them out of consideration, a Houston loss may open the door for TCU. Probably unlikely at this point that TCU would reach the Top 16, but still a chance that a Houston loss does nothing for Boise State.

10. South Carolina needs to beat Clemson

You may wonder why this is even in. Simple. South Carolina, as the #4 SEC team right now, has little chance of getting selected. Yet they are in the Top 14, again taking up a spot so that other teams (like Michigan, like TCU, like Baylor, like Clemson, cannot get in. So this is a needed result.

11. TCU needs to lose to UNLV
So there you have it--a checklist if you will. Do all you can do by cheering wildly at the next two home games. Don't let the Boise State players play anything but the best and be the 12th man that makes a difference. Then, all we can do is sit back and watch what happens in the other eight Items referenced above.

And Think Karma. Behave in a way that makes Boise State deserving of a BCS Bowl. In the stands, on the Message Boards, etc.