There is a leak out of the Big 12 Conference that TCU has been added for expansion. This would take the power out of the Big East and paves the way for the Mountain West to gain automatic inclusion into the BCS. This means millions of dollars for the conference of which Boise State is a member, plus an automatic berth into a BCS Bowl every year for the conference champion.
This is because the Big East, which currently owns one of six automatic BCS bids, would fall behind the Mountain West in all three criteria that the BCS uses to decide who the automatic qualifying conferences will be each evaluation period. The reality is that TCU is the only school giving the Big East a chance to head off the Mountain West in its quest for AQ status. If TCU disappears from the Big East, they have no chance. Note: this only happens if the Big 12 does not choose Boise State. If they choose the Broncos, the Big East will still have the advantage over the Mountain West.
The MWC will not get automatic inclusion in the current period of 2009-2012 but it will be eligible for an exemption for the 2012 and 2013 seasons. The Mountain West, will, however, be miles ahead of the Big East in the next evaluation period, which is already underway to determine the six automatic qualifying conferences for the 2014-2017 seasons. The truth is that there aren't any teams (other than Boise State) that could help them top the Mountain West.
Regardless of who the Big East chooses to replace the members the Big 12 reportedly is targeting, they would be way behind the Mountain West in the battle for the next qualifying period, with little chance of making it into the top six. In 2010 alone, losing TCU means the Big East gets zero points in the all-important third category. To be an AQ conference, a conference must get 50% of the points of the #1 conference in Category 3, which currently is the SEC. Getting zero points is a death blow.
To automatically qualify for the seventh AQ conference in the current period, the Mountain West must rank in the top six in categories 1 and 2 and and its ranking in category 3 must be equal to or greater than 50% of the #1 conference. To apply for an exemption, the MWC must be in the top six in categories 1 and 2 (or top five in one category and top seven in the other) and its ranking in category 3 must be equal to or greater than 33.3% of the #1 conference.
You will note that the Mountain West is #5 in the first category, #7 in the second and that its percentage is greater than 50%, meaning it automatically qualifies to apply for an exemption in the current evaluation period to get AQ status for 2012 and 2013. Also note that the Mountain West is #5, #6 and #5 so far in the evaluation period that began in 2010 for AQ status from 2014-2017. The Big East, by contrast is #7, #7 and #7. Further note that in the average computer rating, the Mountain West is within range of beating the ACC, which has rankings of #6, #5 and #6. If the Mountain West can perform well the next three years, they will not only beat the Big East but the ACC as well and rank as the #5 conference in the country. The BCS rules state that a minimum of five conferences will get AQ status.
For the example below, I am assuming that the Big 12 holds on to Missouri and does not add any more teams.
If TCU goes to the Big 12, and gives their points to that conference instead of the Big East, here are the current Standings for the top eight conferences for each evaluation period:
Criterion #1: Average Highest-Rated Team:
1. SEC--1.3
2. Big 12--3.3
3. Pac 12--4.7
4. Mountain West 5.3
5. Big 10--7.0
6. ACC--12.0
7. Big East--14.7
8. Conference USA--34.8
Criterion #2--Average Computer Rating:
1. SEC--46.4, 33.7, 35.1 = 38.4
2. Big 12--40.6, 44.3, 38.5 = 41.4
3. ACC--35.9, 46.1, 53.3 = 45.1
4. Pac 12--51.4, 41.9, 42.6 = 45.3
5. Big 10--43.2, 52.1, 44.2 = 46.5
6. Big East--46.9, 40.6, 63.4 = 50.3
7. Mountain West--61.5, 70.1, 57.7 = 63.1
8. Conference USA--82.3, 81.2, 75.3 = 79.6
Criterion #3 (Points for Teams in Top 25--MWC must be over 33.3% to petition for exemption):
1. SEC-- 37 (100%)
2. Big 12--34 (90.6%)
3. Big 10--33 (88.9%)
4. Pac 12--29 (77.8%)
5. Mountain West--27 (72.9%)
6. Big East--17 (45.1%)
7. ACC--16 (38.1%)
8. WAC--4 (10.4)
2. Pac-12--2.0
3. Big 12--3.0
4. Big 10--5.0
5. Mountain West--10.0
6. ACC--13.0
7. Big East--22.0
8. Conference USA--25.0
Criterion #2 Average Computer Rating:
1. SEC--36.2
2. Big 12--37.3
3. Pac 12--39.3
4. Big 10--41.8
5. ACC--55.4
6. Mountain West--60.4
7. Big East--63.4
8. Conference USA--81.6
2. Big 10--13 (81.3%)
3. Big 12--12 (75%)
4. Pac-10--9 (56.3%)
5. Mountain West-- 6.75 (42.2%)
6. ACC--3 (18.8%)
7. Conference USA--1 (.6%)
Big East has 0 points.
This is because the Big East, which currently owns one of six automatic BCS bids, would fall behind the Mountain West in all three criteria that the BCS uses to decide who the automatic qualifying conferences will be each evaluation period. The reality is that TCU is the only school giving the Big East a chance to head off the Mountain West in its quest for AQ status. If TCU disappears from the Big East, they have no chance. Note: this only happens if the Big 12 does not choose Boise State. If they choose the Broncos, the Big East will still have the advantage over the Mountain West.
The MWC will not get automatic inclusion in the current period of 2009-2012 but it will be eligible for an exemption for the 2012 and 2013 seasons. The Mountain West, will, however, be miles ahead of the Big East in the next evaluation period, which is already underway to determine the six automatic qualifying conferences for the 2014-2017 seasons. The truth is that there aren't any teams (other than Boise State) that could help them top the Mountain West.
Regardless of who the Big East chooses to replace the members the Big 12 reportedly is targeting, they would be way behind the Mountain West in the battle for the next qualifying period, with little chance of making it into the top six. In 2010 alone, losing TCU means the Big East gets zero points in the all-important third category. To be an AQ conference, a conference must get 50% of the points of the #1 conference in Category 3, which currently is the SEC. Getting zero points is a death blow.
To automatically qualify for the seventh AQ conference in the current period, the Mountain West must rank in the top six in categories 1 and 2 and and its ranking in category 3 must be equal to or greater than 50% of the #1 conference. To apply for an exemption, the MWC must be in the top six in categories 1 and 2 (or top five in one category and top seven in the other) and its ranking in category 3 must be equal to or greater than 33.3% of the #1 conference.
You will note that the Mountain West is #5 in the first category, #7 in the second and that its percentage is greater than 50%, meaning it automatically qualifies to apply for an exemption in the current evaluation period to get AQ status for 2012 and 2013. Also note that the Mountain West is #5, #6 and #5 so far in the evaluation period that began in 2010 for AQ status from 2014-2017. The Big East, by contrast is #7, #7 and #7. Further note that in the average computer rating, the Mountain West is within range of beating the ACC, which has rankings of #6, #5 and #6. If the Mountain West can perform well the next three years, they will not only beat the Big East but the ACC as well and rank as the #5 conference in the country. The BCS rules state that a minimum of five conferences will get AQ status.
For the example below, I am assuming that the Big 12 holds on to Missouri and does not add any more teams.
If TCU goes to the Big 12, and gives their points to that conference instead of the Big East, here are the current Standings for the top eight conferences for each evaluation period:
2010-2013:
1. SEC--1.3
2. Big 12--3.3
3. Pac 12--4.7
4. Mountain West 5.3
5. Big 10--7.0
6. ACC--12.0
7. Big East--14.7
8. Conference USA--34.8
Criterion #2--Average Computer Rating:
1. SEC--46.4, 33.7, 35.1 = 38.4
2. Big 12--40.6, 44.3, 38.5 = 41.4
3. ACC--35.9, 46.1, 53.3 = 45.1
4. Pac 12--51.4, 41.9, 42.6 = 45.3
5. Big 10--43.2, 52.1, 44.2 = 46.5
6. Big East--46.9, 40.6, 63.4 = 50.3
7. Mountain West--61.5, 70.1, 57.7 = 63.1
8. Conference USA--82.3, 81.2, 75.3 = 79.6
Criterion #3 (Points for Teams in Top 25--MWC must be over 33.3% to petition for exemption):
1. SEC-- 37 (100%)
2. Big 12--34 (90.6%)
3. Big 10--33 (88.9%)
4. Pac 12--29 (77.8%)
5. Mountain West--27 (72.9%)
6. Big East--17 (45.1%)
7. ACC--16 (38.1%)
8. WAC--4 (10.4)
2010-2013:
Criterion #1: Average Highest-Rated Team:
1. SEC-- 1.02. Pac-12--2.0
3. Big 12--3.0
4. Big 10--5.0
5. Mountain West--10.0
6. ACC--13.0
7. Big East--22.0
8. Conference USA--25.0
Criterion #2 Average Computer Rating:
1. SEC--36.2
2. Big 12--37.3
3. Pac 12--39.3
4. Big 10--41.8
5. ACC--55.4
6. Mountain West--60.4
7. Big East--63.4
8. Conference USA--81.6
Criterion #3 (Points for Teams in Top 25--MWC must be over 50% to qualify for seventh AQ and over 33.3% to petition for exemption):
1. SEC--16 (100%)2. Big 10--13 (81.3%)
3. Big 12--12 (75%)
4. Pac-10--9 (56.3%)
5. Mountain West-- 6.75 (42.2%)
6. ACC--3 (18.8%)
7. Conference USA--1 (.6%)
Big East has 0 points.
How does criterion number three work, I mean how do you get to those numbers?
ReplyDeleteProbably the most complicated of the three. Points are assigned the conferences based on the final BCS Standings. Four points if the team in that conference is #1-6, three if they are 7-12, two if they are #13-18 and one from #19-25. The points are added as you see above. The percentage reflects the number of points for the conference divided by the #1 conference, which right now is the SEC for the 2010-2013 period. If a conference has over 50% and are in the top six in the other two categories, they automatically qualify for an exemption over the next two years. If they are over 33% they can apply for that exemption.
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